調查：美國CFO信心上升

The confidence of US finance chiefs in their companies' near-term fortunes surged this past quarter, even as many of them predict a full-scale economic recovery may not begin until 2010, a survey has revealed.

一項調查顯示，上季度，美國企業的財務主管們對本公司近期前景的信心大幅上升，盡管他們中很多人預計，經濟在2010年前或許不會開始全面復蘇。

US companies were expected to show an 11 per cent increase in net earnings in the next 12 months, according to a poll of 262 chief financial officers, conducted by Financial Executives International, a corporate finance lobby group, and Baruch College.

企業財務游說團體——國際財務執行官組織(Financial Executives International)和巴魯學院(Baruch College)一項針對262名首席財務官進行的調查顯示，未來12個月期間，美國企業的凈利潤有望增長11%。

Those surveyed also predicted that revenue would increase 5.8 per cent in the next year. And for the first time in more than a year, CFOs predicted capital budgets would rise in the next 12 months, as would hiring.

受訪者還預計，下一年營業收入將增長5.8%。首席財務官們一年多來首次預料，未來12個月資本預算將有所增長，招聘人數也將上升。

“About a year ago we began to see caution,” John Elliott, dean of Baruch's Zicklin School of Business, told the Financial Times. “You've got some pent- up demand you would expect to emerge.”

“大約一年前，人們開始變得謹慎，”巴魯學院席克林商學院(Zicklin School of Business)院長約翰•埃利奧特(John Elliott)表示，“可以預料，有一些被壓抑的需求將會浮現。”

Overall capital spending is expected to rise by 1.1 per cent. Healthcare costs are forecast to climb by 8.2 per cent, while technology spending may pick up by 7.2 per cent.

受訪者預計，資本開支總額將上升1.1%，醫療費用上升8.2%，技術開支可能上升7.2%。

The finance chiefs also predicted a 1.7 per cent increase in recruitment.

財務主管們還預計，招聘人數將增加1.7%。

When asked to rate their optimism for the US economy between zero and 100, the CFOs responded with an average score of 54.2.

調查要求首席財務官們以0-100分評估自己對美國經濟的樂觀程度，得出的平均分為54.2。

While it was the highest reading since March 2008, the survey also revealed that many finance executives remained cautious.

這是2008年3月以來的最高分，但調查也顯示，許多首席財務官目前仍持謹慎態度。

Almost 40 per cent predicted that a basket of economic indicators, including bond yields, the jobless rate and the nation's gross domestic product, would improve enough to signal the start of a recovery in the first half of 2010.

近40%的受訪者預計，包括債券收益率、失業率和美國國內生產總值(GDP)的一組經濟指標將出現明顯好轉，足以預示經濟將在明年上半年開始復蘇。

Another 26 per cent said the pick-up would not begin until late next year, while only about 10 per cent believed the recovery was already under way.

另外26%的受訪者則表示，明年底前，經濟不會開始復蘇。只有10%左右的受訪者認為，經濟已經在復蘇。

譯者/岱嵩